The latest Long-Haul Travel Barometer, released by the European Travel Commission and Interrail, reveals that over half of visitors arriving in Europe this autumn will be first-time travellers. The report examines travel intentions for September through December among potential long-haul travellers from seven key markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Travel plans for long-haul destinations have weakened. Only 50% of respondents now intend to travel overseas during this period, compared to 55% in the previous year. Interest in Europe specifically has also decreased, with 34% of respondents considering a trip—down from 38% last year. Despite this decline, Europe remains the leading long-haul destination, representing roughly two-thirds of all overseas travel intentions.
China shows the steepest drop, with 54% of respondents planning a European trip this autumn—15 percentage points lower than last year. Brazil’s figures remain stable at 45%, while South Korea is the only market with a slight increase, rising from 33% to 36%. Canada and Australia have both seen declines, with 30% and 27% of respondents considering Europe, respectively. The United States stands at 27%, and Japan remains the least likely market, with only 12% of respondents planning a trip.
Confirmed bookings have held steady despite weaker overall travel intentions. Across all surveyed markets, 17% of respondents have already booked flights to Europe, a rate unchanged from last year. However, as fewer people plan European trips, those with confirmed bookings now account for 52% of the group considering Europe, up from 42% last autumn. In China, 37% of respondents have secured tickets, an increase from 33% last year and 26% in autumn 2019.
Cost barriers ease as travel plans shift
Cost remains the biggest obstacle to long-haul travel, though its influence is lessening. Among those not planning a trip, 44% cite high costs as the main reason, a five-point drop from last year. For those travelling long-haul but not to Europe, cost is a factor for 30%, a decline of 12 points. Other barriers include a preference for other regions (23%), limited holiday time (16%), and geopolitical concerns. Only 7% mention the war in Ukraine, and 6% cite Middle East conflicts as deterrents.
Related Post: Travel groups unite to help small businesses
The report finds that 53% of prospective visitors to Europe will be new to the continent, with the highest shares among Chinese (61%) and American (57%) respondents. These newcomers are more likely to book full package trips (52%), while repeat visitors tend to plan independently. Leisure remains the primary purpose of travel (73%), with most visitors planning stays of one to two weeks. The largest group budgets between €100 and €200 per person per day.
Travellers increasingly view Europe as a unified destination. A total of 39% of respondents, including 43% of first-time visitors, see Europe as one cohesive destination. This perception is strongest among Japanese (68%) and South Korean (51%) travellers. The report attributes this trend to strong connectivity between countries, shared systems like the euro, and a unified visa framework.
Multi-country trips and top European picks
Multi-country itineraries are the norm. Only 34% of travellers plan to visit a single European country, while 66% intend to explore two or more. The average itinerary covers 2.7 countries, rising to 3.3 for Australians. Southern and Mediterranean Europe are the most popular regions, with 67% of travellers planning to visit. France leads as the top destination (52%), followed by Italy (35%) and Spain (25%).
Air travel remains the primary mode of transport between countries, with 45% choosing low-cost airlines and 44% opting for full-service carriers. Rail travel also plays a significant role, with 40% planning to use rail passes and 39% booking point-to-point tickets. The data suggests travellers prioritize both flexibility and convenience, often combining air and rail for their journeys.